Some interesting details coming out on OpenAI & Anthropic’s Financial Projections.

OpenAI Financial Projections + OpenAI Path to Profits

1. OpenAI plans to break even and starting making profits in 2030
2. OpenAI projects $74 billion in operating losses in 2028
3. Open AI says it will reach $20 billion annual revenue run rate by Dec 2025
4. Open AI is projecting
   • $20 billion annual revenue run rate by Dec 2025
   • $100 billion annual revenue run rate by 2028. $74 billion in losses. So expenses of $174 billion in 2028
   • $200 billion annual revenue run rate by 2030. Profitability in 2030.

Makes me a bit suspicious when all the numbers are such nice round figures ($20 billion, $100 billion, $200 billion). Are these projections or just wishful thinking?

Reference: https://the-decoder.com/openai-faces-questions-over-calls-for-government-support/#openai-ceo-sam-altman-expects-to-hit-%2420-billion-in-annual-revenue-by-year-end

Anthropic Financial Projections + Anthropic Path to Profits

1. Anthropic is seeing $7 billion a year in revenues as of 2025, projecting from Nov 2025 revenue rate
   • It expects that to grow to $9 billion annual revenue run rate by Dec 2025
2. Anthropic expects total annual revenues to be
   • $4.7 billion in 2025
   • $15.2 billion in 2026. With an outside chance of hitting $26 billion
   • $38.9 billion in 2027. Anthropic is projecting Cash Flow Positive in 2027
   • $70 billion in 2028. Anthropic is projecting Profitability in 2028
3. Anthropic is saying that Claude API is doing so well that it might become profitable by 2028
4. Anthropic expects to be Cash Flow positive by 2027
5. Anthropic sees its revenue growing to $70 billion in 2028
6. Anthropic also sees 2008 as the year it breaks even and starts making profits
7. Anthropic thinks Claude API business will be double of OpenAI’s API business by 2028

Reference: https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-anthropic-profitability-e9f5bcd6

Reference: https://the-decoder.com/anthropic-is-betting-on-an-audacious-leap-from-4-7-billion-to-70-billion-in-revenue-by-2028/

OpenAI vs Anthropic – Why is Anthropic projecting it will reach profits in 2028 itself? 2 years before OpenAI

Reference: https://www.theinformation.com/articles/anthropic-projects-cost-advantage-openai

Reference: https://sherwood.news/tech/anthropics-move-to-diversify-from-nvidia-chips-may-give-it-an-edge-against/

These are three of the reasons postulated

1. Anthropic’s decision to not go All Nvidia like Open AI
   • Anthropic uses Google and Amazon chips, in addition to Nvidia chips
2. Anthropic has fewer free users. Whereas OpenAI has 800 million weekly users on ChatGPT and most of them are non paying users
3. Anthropic is generating 80% of its revenue from paid API access to Claude API