Category: AI Country Wars

Long Term Impact of Nvidia’s Chinese Market Share going to Zero

October 25th, 2025
As the AI wars got heated, the US was caught in a bind. China was progressing very fast in AI. The US was forced to cut off Nvidia AI Chip supplies to China.

This was a very risky move and it is worth considering whether it paid off, or whether it backfired?

Perhaps both.

The hope was that the Nvidia AI Chip ban would severely hamper China’s AI efforts. Surely, if they didn’t have Nvidia Chips (at one time, quite literally the only game in town), China’s AI efforts would stall.

Well, what exactly has happened as a result of the Nvidia AI Chip ban?
1. Nvidia’s market share in China has gone to zero
2. Chinese startups are forced to innovate, including in ways no one had foreseen
3. China has managed to survive in the AI race
  - In fact, you could argue that the fact that China is alive and kicking in AI means the Nvidia AI Chips ban was necessary
  - Perhaps China would have overtaken the US without the Nvidia AI Chips ban
4. Chinese AI chip manufacturers are evolving rapidly
5. Illegal sales to China via countries such as Singapore and territories such as Hong Kong are robust
  - Albeit hard to measure accurately
6. It has shown that taking away Nvidia AI chips from a country does not kill that country’s AI development and AI market evolution
  - This is quite shocking and very scary
  - It also makes one question why Nvidia’s valuation is so sky high
7. The US banning Nvidia AI Chip exports to China has shown that the US is not a dependable country
  - At some level most countries knew this
  - However, the assumption was that the US would not go against capitalism and the free market
  - The Nvidia AI Chips ban shows that there are some areas the US considers so important that it is willing to forsake capitalism
It is really quite fascinating to wonder about the long term implications of forcing China to get by without the latest generation (s) of Nvidia AI Chips

Long Term Implications of Nvidia AI Chips ban + China’s response to it
1. The US might have slowed down China overall in AI and prevented it from surpassing the US
  - At the same time, the US helped accelerate two key aspects of China’s AI evolution
    
    Firstly, Chinese startups are now doing the most innovative things in AI. We see this with Deepseek and Manus
    
    Secondly, China’s AI hardware efforts have been massively boosted. Necessity is indeed the mother of invention and innovation
  - Basically, the US bought itself 2 to 4 years, and bought China 10 years of development and innovation
    
    Without any wars against China, the US will find it hard to compete with China in AI by approximately 2035
2. Countries and Unions like European Union, Saudi Arabia, India, Russia, etc have now become acutely aware that the US will use any means necessary to monopolize the AI revolution (whether it is merely a big technology revolution, or a truly world changing revolution that transforms everything)
  - All countries are becoming more independent
  - This is especially true of the European Union and the Middle Eastern countries
    
    They have enough resources and are well developed enough to actually begin to wean themselves off of the American AI Chips supply
3. The US is now left with no option other than War to monopolize AI developments
  - Fundamentally, if you hold back on the latest Nvidia AI chips and hope it will give you a 5 year lead
  - In reality you find out it gave you only a 1 or 2 year lead
  - Then your only path to maintain status as Sole World Super Power is to start wars
    
    If China (somewhat likely), or European Union (somewhat unlikely) take the lead in AI
    
    They would have the means to become the new sole super power
    
    Or joint most powerful super power alongside the US
    
    This is an untenable situation for the US which is already facing the struggles of the American Empire in slow decline i.e.
    
    The onset of Civil War in the US
    
    The start of countries disrespecting Team America World Police
    
    The world beginning to fall apart, as the World Police is too busy with internal wars
  - The US absolutely must monopolize AI to remain the Sole Superpower in the World
    
    Now, with the failure of the Nvidia AI Chip ban, its only option is out right war
    
    Or such a huge AI leap that other countries are unable to keep up
    
    By the way, we do not mean financial engineering and circular deals and infinite funding
    
    We mean the US needs an actual technological AI advancement
    
    Without such a massive, magical, revolutionary technological leap, the US must use its massive Armed Forces to maintain its status as Hegemon
    
    Perhaps first with a country such as Venezuela which is easy (while also having massively valuable oil reservces)
    
    Then with a weakened Russia. Perhaps that is the reason Ukraine is given just enough resources to keep fighting a never ending war
    
    Then, using conquered Russia as a springboard, with China itself
  - If all of this seems crazy, think of all the changes we have seen in the US. They are far crazier than America going to war outside its borders
We are truly living in interesting times

The US is pushing AI as the biggest technological revolution of all time, hoping some magic ‘Killer AI App’ happens and cements the US as the only superpower in the world.

If that does not happen within the next 1 to 3 years, then the US must go to war

No amount of financial engineering and pretending AI is the new Steam Engine or the New Internet will cement the US as Sole Superpower in the World for the next 100 years

Wars might.

China and the EU and the Middle East are all investing heavily in AI and if AI becomes a 100 year race, then the American Empire in Slow Decline is no longer guaranteed to win this 100 year AI race.

Not only are we living in very interesting times, we are also living in very scary times

The US is pulling off the greatest illusion of all time – Pretending there is some super amazing new AI technology that makes it the dominant and only super power in the world for the next 100 to 500 years.

At some point, it needs to Deliver, or go to war

And all of us are in danger of becoming collateral damage.
Facebook AKA Meta has set up 4 War Rooms to understand DeepSeek’s Technology

January 26th, 2025
Reference: https://www.theinformation.com/articles/meta-scrambles-after-chinese-ai-equals-its-own-upending-silicon-valley

For anyone who thinks ‘DeepSeek’ has not upended all of AI, or thinks USA is still far ahead of the rest of the world, please read the above linked article

Facebook AKA Meta has set up 4 War Rooms
1. 2 are trying to deduce how High Flyer (the Chinese company behind DeepSeek) reduced their training costs so much
2. 1 is trying to figure out what data High Flyer might have used for building DeepSeek
When is the last time you heard of a large technology company setting up 4 War Rooms to respond to what a rival did?

Amazon has ONE single team to figure out Shopify. Can you imagine the amount of panic in Silicon Valley and Seattle if Meta/Facebook are setting up 4 war rooms to understand what DeepSeek did?

DeepSeek is an EXISTENTIAL threat to Existing AI giants and to the Large US Technology Companies

What is worse for the US Technology Giants is that by making all its models and technology Open Source, DeepSeek is setting up the stage for SOMEONE/ANYONE to become an Existential Threat

To be Precise – The Cost Requirements are reduced by 80%. So instead of just 50 to 100 possible rivals worldwide, now there are thousands of possible rivals worldwide

Furthermore – What if some company builds on DeepSeek’s technology and reduces costs more? We could suddenly see 5,000 to 10,000 AI startups that have a REALISTIC chance of becoming a Top 5 AI company

DeepSeek is fighting USA’s ‘do not let anyone else have the hardware or the technology’ approach with Open Source. And, what is worse, is it is currently winning.

Avoid the Gaslighting – All Honest People see DeepSeek for the MASSIVE threat to US dominance in AI that it is

Stephanie Palazzo’s tweet is spot on -> Stephanie Palazzolo on X: “NEW: American AI firms are scrambling after a Chinese hedge fund released an impressive and uber-cheap AI model. Meta has set up 4 “war rooms” to dissect the DeepSeek model to see what insights it can apply to its Llama AI. w/ @KalleyHuang @amir https://t.co/ZCAq4UCt1B” / X

US PR and Large Tech Company PR might be trying to spin the BS that DeepSeek is ‘not a big deal’. In Reality it has everyone stunned and scrambling for answers.
India’s AI Strategy, or lack thereof

August 27th, 2024
This is the IndiaAI site which supposedly covers India’s AI strategy.

It shouldn’t take you very long to figure out that this is hogwash.

You can also check the OECD.ai website’s India section and find the same sort of poorly thought-out strategy.

For Example: The yearly budget allocated is $20 Million to $50 Million. That’s less than the seed round for most AI Startups these days. $20 to $50 Million for a country of 1.4 billion people is absurdly low.

The link to India’s National AI Strategy at the Niti India website doesn’t even work -> https://niti.gov.in/national-strategy-artificial-intelligence

Which, to be fair, is exactly the state of India’s AI strategy and execution.

Why does India not have a proper AI Strategy?

It is hard to say. In some ways the Indian Government has been making tremendous progress
1. The National Aadhar card is a technological marvel
2. UPI is a universal payments interface which just works and can handle very small amounts smoothly (something most payment systems really struggle with)
In AI, unfortunately, the Indian Government doesn’t even realize the AI Wars are in full flow. There is almost nothing being done by India in AI.

Why is India not investing a lot into AI Startups and AI?

That is a hard question to answer. At a time when the USA, China, Europe, and even the Middle Eastern countries are going crazy investing in AI Startups and encouraging their own AI startups, India seems to be sleeping on AI.

Most of the interesting Indian AI startups are funded by Foreign Investors, usually from the US.

Is India going to wake up and start investing big in AI? Perhaps even develop a working AI Strategy to catch up with America and China?

Really hard to say what the Indian government is going to do. At the moment, it seems to be blissfully unaware that the rest of the world is fighting for dominance in AI and viewing Artificial Intelligence as
1. An existential threat to the existing World Order
2. An opportunity to become the next big Sole Super Power
When it comes to AI and AI Strategy, India is ambling along on a bullock cart, while everyone else is jumping on their planes and jets.
Saudi AI Ambition + Saudi caught between America and China

August 25th, 2024

‘To the Future’: Saudi Arabia Spends Big to Become an A.I. Superpower – The New York Times (nytimes.com)

This is a very interesting post. It is absolutely fascinating how the Middle East countries are confused, or perhaps super brilliant, in deciding whether to support America or China in the AI Wars.

To Be America’s Ally, or to be China’s Ally – That is the Question

Saudi Arabia’s solution for the moment seems to be – Why not both?

It’s a smart bet, as it is not clear at all whether America or China (or someone else, perhaps even a large tech company) will become the Winner in the AI Wars

We predict that the Saudis will start making bigger bets and start investing in specific technology companies and specific AI startups while still appeasing both America and China.

Category: AI Country Wars

Long Term Impact of Nvidia’s Chinese Market Share going to Zero

Facebook AKA Meta has set up 4 War Rooms to understand DeepSeek’s Technology

India’s AI Strategy, or lack thereof

Saudi AI Ambition + Saudi caught between America and China