Category: AI Vision & Predictions

An AI Gathering of Black Swans

November 8th, 2025
We now face 5 AI and non AI Black Swans
1. The AI Bubble reaching absolutely majestic proportions
  - OpenAI with $20 billion annual revenues, has made commitments of $1.4 Trillion over the next 8 years
  - Behind the scenes it is lobbying the US Government to backstop AI companies and AI infrastructure
  - There are, supposedly, 498 AI Unicorn Startups
  - There are, supposedly, a further 1,000 AI Startups valued at $100 million or more
  - OpenAI is being valued at $500 Billion
  - Anthropic is being valued at $350 Billion
  - Companies with NO PRODUCT are being valued in the billions of dollars
2. The US Stock Market being pumped to truly horrific levels of exuberance
  - Does anyone really think an entire stock market propped by 7 to 10 large technology companies is sustainanble?
  - What if nearly all those 7 to 10 large technology companies are pumped up by the AI Bubble
  - Nearly the entire ‘Bubble’ in the US Stock Market is due to the AI Bubble
3. UBS in mortal danger and threatening to take down a large number of critically important banks worldwide
  - Archegos bags went to Debit Suisse. Debit Suisse imploded and Archegos bags went to UBS. Now UBS is going to implode and pity on the bank that has to inherit Archegos bags from UBS
4. Wars getting worse, not better
  - War in Ukraine, between Russia and Ukraine, continuing beyond anyone’s predicted dates
  - US doing all sorts of shenanigans in Venezuela
    
    Yeah, it definitely has nothing to do with Oil
  - US is showing weakness and that is encouraging everyone and their mother to start conflicts. No more Team America World Police
5. Trade Wars threatening to disrupt a world that had become more intertwined than ever
  - Can the economies of various countries actually survive a prolonged trade war? Of course not
  - The US of all countries starting a trade war is absurd. It is interconnected with every other country. The US Dollar is the world reserve currency
    
    Starting a trade war and risking your status as the world’s reserve currency is Dumb & Dumber levels of stupidity
That’s FIVE Black Swans. The first two of which are completely AI powered. Who says AI has no practical real world applications.

Any one of these 5 Black Swans can take down the US economy and/or the Global Economy

All 5 happening in the world at the same time is Final Destination level bad luck.

To complicate matters, we also have some mini Black Swans on the Horizon

5 Mini Black Swans
1. Crypto getting pumped again. Worse – The possibility that the US President wants to kneecap all the Systemically Important Global Banks and the Petrodollar. Then shift to a Crypto US Dollar. That Crypto US Dollar would be backed by the might of the US Armed Forces
2. Civil War in the US
  - Quite literally
  - If the internal conflicts in the US get worse, it would become a MASSIVE Black Swan
3. China potentially taking Taiwan
  - The more there is Civil War in the US
  - The more the chance of a big crash in the US stock market
  - The more the time is ripe for China to swoop in and take Taiwan
    
    A US that is divided internally. A US that is on the verge of a significant market crash. That is a US very ill equipped to protect Taiwan and to protect US interests in Taiwan
4. BRICS becoming stronger and stronger
  - US with the Tariffs is incentivizing every non-US country to move away from the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency
  - This sets things up beautifully for BRICS to step in with a new world reserve currency
  - It is worth mentioning that, contrary to US propaganda, most BRICS countries are far less internally divided than the US
    
    China and India in particular are surprisingly strong with very high approval ratings for their respective leaders
5. The US and American companies putting massive amounts of investment into AI infrastructure
  - Everyone claiming – Even if AI is a Bubble that investment will pay off in some other way
  - Should consider – What if there is no other use for Nvidia AI chips?
  - They should also consider – What if the actual Next Big Technology requires some other type of investment?
    
    And the big American companies don’t have enough money left, after their AI investments, to compete in that Actual Next Big Technology War
6. OpenAI and Sam Altman
  - This dude single-handedly is causing so much reputational damage to the AI industry and to America’s status in AI
We are living in truly interesting times.

With 5 massive Black Swans converging, and another 6 Mini Black Swans hovering near the horizon, we are going to see some truly magnificent fireworks.

The Decline and Fall of the American Empire might be close. The next 30 to 70 years are going to be a brutal and beautiful lesson in the Rise and Fall of Global Empires.

Will the No Longer United States of America conjure a magic spell to strengthen its empire and extend its reign as Sole Superpower of the World for another 100 to 400 years?

Or will another country or a union of countries become the new World Sole Super Power?

Or will we go into a Hundred Years War where various groups such as The Great White Empire of America and Russia, China, India, The Middle Kingdoms, The Oil Sultanates, and the European Union all fight for supremacy?
DeepSeek, AI, US Sanctions, and The Law of Unintended Consequences

January 26th, 2025
What is happening with DeepSeek is Absolutely Beautiful for AI. It might end up being disastrous for America and America’s status as sole Super Power in the world.

At the same time, for AI and for people in AI, it is a beautiful leap forward. The fact that DeepSeek has made everything Open Source is beyond incredible

Reference: https://www.technologyreview.com/2025/01/24/1110526/china-deepseek-top-ai-despite-sanctions/

Context: DeepSeek is an AI out of China that has a reasoning model that matches the performance of ChatGPT o1 (currently considered the best out of all the Western AI models)

Context 2: This is absolutely stunning. China was quite far behind the US. The US, realizing that AI might be the next ‘100 year super power’ creator, levied heavy AI restrictions and AI sanctions on all countries, especially China and India. Yet, China still conjured up DeepSeek

The ramifications of this are so Immense that I’m lost for words

The Law of Unintended Consequences – Context of What America was Trying To Do

The United States of America, and especially the Large Technology companies in the USA, are very good at screwing over everyone else via a combination of
1. Immense Profits and Immense Capital
2. Unethical Methods
3. Downright Illegal Methods
4. Lots of Virtue Signaling to distract people from all the Evil they are doing
5. Destruction of the Middle Class and the Upper Class – Trying to leave just ‘Lower Class’ poor people and a small section of extremely wealthy ‘Elites’. Think the movie Elysium
6. Regulatory Capture – Making Laws that give the Large Monopolies insane and unmatchable advantages
7. Gaslighting to pretend Regulatory Capture is the Opposite of what it is – Claiming something is to ‘help every day people’ when in reality it is to create and entrench monopolies and prevent new entrants
8. Economic Imperialism to prevent 2nd world and 3rd world countries from EVER becoming 1st world countries
9. Starting Wars when they can’t do Economic Imperialism
The list goes on.

The USA is very good at spinning what benefits America and screws over another country as ‘Helping The Country’.

All the moves America is making in AI are designed to
1. Help Large Technology companies and their monopolies become stronger
2. Prevent new companies from rising. A few ‘already risen’ companies like ChatGPT are OK
  - Worth mentioning that ChatGPT has Microsoft backing, Anthropic has Amazon backing, XAI has Elon Musk backing, and the other major players are Google and Facebook/Meta and Amazon
  - There are also no ‘small companies’ getting a chance to rise as Independent AI superpowers
3. Create Regulations so that no country or company other than USA and large USA technology companies can dominate AI
Now, you would assume that pretty much guarantees that other regions (Europe, China, India, Latin America, Canada) are completely screwed

DeepSeek shows The Law of Unintended Consequences

The Law of Unintended Consequences – What Actually Happened

Two absolutely insane things happened
1. DeepSeek, working with far fewer resources and with US limitations, managed to match the front running US AI technology company (OpenAI)
2. DeepSeek made everything Open Source. That means EVERYONE can pick up DeepSeek’s technology and run with it
  - It is not just DeepSeek that the US has to fight now
  - It’s EVERYONE
  - Including small US startups that America was, wrongly, trying to kill off because of bribes from the existing Large Technology Companies
Both of these are Absolutely Insane. There are only a handful of times in the ENTIRE existence of computers and computer science, where we have seen anyone do something this revolutionary.

Hopefully, there will be many more DeepSeeks and we get something that benefits All of Humanity, instead of something that just allows USA to extend their (somewhat crumbling) Empire by another 100 to 300 years.
What is the Future of AI?

August 25th, 2024
We currently have people in 3 camps, as to the Future of AI
1. The first category are people who think AI will take over Everything. The way the Internet took over (and is still taking over) everything
  - This includes the large technology companies who are spending roughly $100 billion a quarter in AI capital expenditure
  - This includes people in certain professions such as doctors, lawyers, Data Analysts, etc who are seeing their work life transformed by AI
  - This includes college and school students who are basically ‘AI’ing all their homework assignments and hoping the AI companies don’t release an AI plagiarism checker
2. The second category are people who think AI is overhyped
  - This includes people burned by things like chatbots and NFTs and VR sets and self driving cars (not literally, we don’t mean literally, don’t mean to hurt anyone’s feelings)
  - This includes people who, accurately, don’t YET see a ‘killer use’ of AI for every day people
  - This includes people who look at AI as just a means of pumping up large tech companies (especially Nvidia) and propping up the US stock market
3. The third category are people who have absolutely no clue what to think, or don’t even know what is going on with AI
  - This is the most interesting group because whether or not they embrace AI will determine whether AI does indeed become the next world changer
What does DealAI think about The Future of AI?

There are two very conflicting realities

The first reality is that the amount of R&D investment into AI by countries (USA, China, Middle East, etc) and companies (Big Tech, Chinese Big Tech) suggests that AI is here to stay and will indeed transform everything. You have to follow the money and the amount of investment into AI, by people with the most data and knowledge, suggests AI really is the next big game changer

The second reality is that all the countries and companies investing big into AI really NEED and WANT AI to become the next big thing
1. For the countries (especially US and China) it would solve all their economic bubble issues. If AI really transformed things then all their economic sins would be hidden and perhaps even fixed
2. For the large tech companies (especially Google and Facebook and Apple and Amazon (perhaps Amazon most of all)) AI would provide the next big growth area and a justification for their valuations
So, how do we differentiate between these two realities?

There is no easy answer

The Decline and Fall of the American Empire Versus AI as the Solution to Resurrect the American Empire

Ray Dalio has an absolutely fascinating video on the Decline and Fall of Empires ->

There can be little doubt to anyone paying close attention that the American Empire is indeed in slow decline. Perhaps the biggest indicator is that Americans are being turned into wage slaves, debt slaves, and rent slaves. Hardly the type of life befitting the citizens of an Empire.

AI is exceedingly crucial for America as if AI really is the once in a lifetime transformational technology that it promises to be, America can use AI to fully revive its Empire and extend the empire by 100 to 200 years.

The importance of this cannot be understated. The only path to America extending its empire, without a series of bloody world wars, is for AI (or another super transformational technology such as Nuclear Fusion) to happen and America to have control of this new technology

So, what is the Future of AI?

We don’t know the answer. What we do know is that

If AI really is as transformational as people are hoping, then whichever country captures AI will become the next Sole SuperPower and control the world for 100 to 200 years

This is not just a technology. This is the determinant of the Next Global Empire.

Perhaps it will be America extending their current Empire for another 100 to 200 years via AI.

Perhaps it will take a century to truly play out, and in that case, any of USA, China, India, the Middle East, or a wild card country or even a large Technology Company could become the next Massive Sole Super Power

Most countries already realize this and are already protecting their data and their citizens (or beginning to). The stage is set for the AI Wars, and the Winner will/could/should control the entire world for the next 100 to 200 years.

Category: AI Vision & Predictions

An AI Gathering of Black Swans

DeepSeek, AI, US Sanctions, and The Law of Unintended Consequences

What is the Future of AI?