We now face 5 AI and non AI Black Swans

1. The AI Bubble reaching absolutely majestic proportions
   • OpenAI with $20 billion annual revenues, has made commitments of $1.4 Trillion over the next 8 years
   • Behind the scenes it is lobbying the US Government to backstop AI companies and AI infrastructure
   • There are, supposedly, 498 AI Unicorn Startups
   • There are, supposedly, a further 1,000 AI Startups valued at $100 million or more
   • OpenAI is being valued at $500 Billion
   • Anthropic is being valued at $350 Billion
   • Companies with NO PRODUCT are being valued in the billions of dollars
2. The US Stock Market being pumped to truly horrific levels of exuberance
   • Does anyone really think an entire stock market propped by 7 to 10 large technology companies is sustainanble?
   • What if nearly all those 7 to 10 large technology companies are pumped up by the AI Bubble
   • Nearly the entire ‘Bubble’ in the US Stock Market is due to the AI Bubble
3. UBS in mortal danger and threatening to take down a large number of critically important banks worldwide
   • Archegos bags went to Debit Suisse. Debit Suisse imploded and Archegos bags went to UBS. Now UBS is going to implode and pity on the bank that has to inherit Archegos bags from UBS
4. Wars getting worse, not better
   • War in Ukraine, between Russia and Ukraine, continuing beyond anyone’s predicted dates
   • US doing all sorts of shenanigans in Venezuela
     • Yeah, it definitely has nothing to do with Oil
   • US is showing weakness and that is encouraging everyone and their mother to start conflicts. No more Team America World Police
5. Trade Wars threatening to disrupt a world that had become more intertwined than ever
   • Can the economies of various countries actually survive a prolonged trade war? Of course not
   • The US of all countries starting a trade war is absurd. It is interconnected with every other country. The US Dollar is the world reserve currency
     • Starting a trade war and risking your status as the world’s reserve currency is Dumb & Dumber levels of stupidity

That’s FIVE Black Swans. The first two of which are completely AI powered. Who says AI has no practical real world applications.

Any one of these 5 Black Swans can take down the US economy and/or the Global Economy

All 5 happening in the world at the same time is Final Destination level bad luck.

To complicate matters, we also have some mini Black Swans on the Horizon

5 Mini Black Swans

1. Crypto getting pumped again. Worse – The possibility that the US President wants to kneecap all the Systemically Important Global Banks and the Petrodollar. Then shift to a Crypto US Dollar. That Crypto US Dollar would be backed by the might of the US Armed Forces
2. Civil War in the US
   • Quite literally
   • If the internal conflicts in the US get worse, it would become a MASSIVE Black Swan
3. China potentially taking Taiwan
   • The more there is Civil War in the US
   • The more the chance of a big crash in the US stock market
   • The more the time is ripe for China to swoop in and take Taiwan
     • A US that is divided internally. A US that is on the verge of a significant market crash. That is a US very ill equipped to protect Taiwan and to protect US interests in Taiwan
4. BRICS becoming stronger and stronger
   • US with the Tariffs is incentivizing every non-US country to move away from the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency
   • This sets things up beautifully for BRICS to step in with a new world reserve currency
   • It is worth mentioning that, contrary to US propaganda, most BRICS countries are far less internally divided than the US
     • China and India in particular are surprisingly strong with very high approval ratings for their respective leaders
5. The US and American companies putting massive amounts of investment into AI infrastructure
   • Everyone claiming – Even if AI is a Bubble that investment will pay off in some other way
   • Should consider – What if there is no other use for Nvidia AI chips?
   • They should also consider – What if the actual Next Big Technology requires some other type of investment?
     • And the big American companies don’t have enough money left, after their AI investments, to compete in that Actual Next Big Technology War
6. OpenAI and Sam Altman
   • This dude single-handedly is causing so much reputational damage to the AI industry and to America’s status in AI

We are living in truly interesting times.

With 5 massive Black Swans converging, and another 6 Mini Black Swans hovering near the horizon, we are going to see some truly magnificent fireworks.

The Decline and Fall of the American Empire might be close. The next 30 to 70 years are going to be a brutal and beautiful lesson in the Rise and Fall of Global Empires.

Will the No Longer United States of America conjure a magic spell to strengthen its empire and extend its reign as Sole Superpower of the World for another 100 to 400 years?

Or will another country or a union of countries become the new World Sole Super Power?

Or will we go into a Hundred Years War where various groups such as The Great White Empire of America and Russia, China, India, The Middle Kingdoms, The Oil Sultanates, and the European Union all fight for supremacy?