There are strong rumors that OpenAI is delaying its IPO to 2027 -> OpenAI Leans Toward Holding Up I.P.O. Until Next Year – The New York Times

Ostensibly, the reason for the delay is that OpenAI’s IPO might not meet Sam Altman’s $1 Trillion OpenAI valuation target.

On the surface this seems peculiar as SpaceX is sitting at a $2 Trillion valuation.

1. SpaceX is an also ran in the AI wars. xAI is currently more of an inference rental company than an actual AI company.

So, why is OpenAI afraid of missing its $1 Trillion valuation target?

Dig deeper and some interesting data points emerge.

SpaceX’s IPO is not really going as well as everyone in AI would like

Currently, SpaceX sits at $2 Trillion valuation with

1. Stock at $151, very close to the price it opened at
2. The Elon Musk crazy factor is not helping SpaceX the way it helps Tesla
   • There were people throwing around $5 trillion and $8 trillion figures
3. Stock Market in turmoil because of US war on Iran and Russian war on Ukraine
4. AI Bubble seems more and more delicate
5. Yen Carry Trade under massive pressure
6. Effects of US war on Iran and closure of Strait of Hormuz still not fully understood
7. SpaceX stock very far from its all-time high of $225

Sam Altman and OpenAI do not have the Elon Musk fan club and they do not have the Data Centers in Space story. They certainly don’t have the shamelessness to claim the Total Addressable Market is $38 trillion.

So, it is quite possible that OpenAI fails to maintain a $1 Trillion valuation on going public.

As the AI companies are, at some level, story stocks – It would be absolutely unacceptable for OpenAI to miss $1 Trillion valuation. The AI story has no room for downs. Stock must only go up.

Amount of Liquidity is Limited

Because of

1. SpaceX IPO and SpaceX debt raise
2. Google debt raise and Google selling bonds
3. Meta selling bonds
4. Oracle selling bonds
5. Many AI companies raising money

The amount of available market liquidity is very limited. It is not an accident that Google raised a massive amount of money right before SpaceX and OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs.

The large tech companies are using every means possible to fight Anthropic and OpenAI.

Raising massive amounts of money just before AI company IPOs and thereby making it hard for Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs to do well is definitely a strategic and negative move by Google.

Anthropic IPO might split AI funds

SpaceX has already raised $75 billion and taken up some of the funds allocated by investors and retail investors to AI.

If both Anthropic and OpenAI IPO this year, the amount of funds left for AI investments might get split between the two IPOs and cause both IPOs to be lackluster.

In fact, there might not even be enough funds left for one spectacular AI IPO.

OpenAI and Anthropic are both at Inflection Points

Open AI and Anthropic are both at points where

1. They are finally on the verge of profitability
2. Revenue continues to increase at absurd rates
3. They have enough funds to be able to wait
4. Their financial picture might improve massively within the next 6 to 12 months
5. They might, within 6 to 12 months, become much more palatable to the general investor population
6. A major AI development might skyrocket valuation of the two companies (or of one)
7. A killer AI app for every day customers might make the entire AI landscape very positive and upbeat

Given the earlier factors, it becomes more important for Open AI and Anthropic to have a healthy financial outlook and be more advanced in their evolution as a business.

Wild Card – One or both of Anthropic and OpenAI might be close to beating out Google, Meta/Facebook, Amazon permanently

Given the rate at which researchers are running away from Google DeepMind to Anthropic and OpenAI.

Given that xAI has lost all its non Elon founders. Basically all the AI geniuses are gone.

Given that Meta/Facebook and Amazon are so far behind they might as well be running a different race.

It might be that within 12 to 24 months it’s a two horse race. At that point the ENTIRETY of AI money would go to OpenAI and Anthropic.

Perhaps there is some data OpenAI sees which is telling it to wait until 2027.

Perhaps this is the same data that is causing all the top Google AI researchers to run away to Anthropic and OpenAI.