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AI just reached -> Privatization of Profits & Socialization of Losses Stage i.e. Bail Outs and/or Bail Ins

November 8th, 2025

What a strange world we live in. The great capitalists who were going to revolutionize the world and transform our lives now desparately need our tax dollars to survive.

Reference: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-07/openai-asks-us-to-expand-chips-act-tax-credit-to-ai-data-centers

Sam Altman of OpenAI was publicly claiming day before yesterday (Nov 6th, 2025) that OpenAI is not asking the US Government to backstop AI companies’ losses.

Behind the scenes, as far back as Oct 27th, OpenAI was asking the Trump government to expand the 35% Chips Act tax credit to all AI infrastructure.

A Comedy of Errors

Who would have guessed that a company with $20 billion a year in revenues (OpenAI), and which has made commitments to spend $1.4 Trillion over the next 8 years, might need Government assistance?

OpenAI is about to trigger an absolutely massive AI Bubble crash.

It might take 6 months to 2.5 years before things fall apart.

Why the delay? Because the US is desperate to not have its economy implode and will do everything it can to delay the inevitable. However, this is the triggering event, without a doubt.

All the people who had doubts. All the people on the fence. All the people who thought AI seemed to be too good to be true. All the people who were suspicious of 22 year olds becoming billionaires (on paper).

They all will think AI is the new big scam, not the new big revolution. Who knows – Perhaps it is both.

Everyone now knows that this is a new breed of Entrepreneur – The Government-Preneur.

Instead of Profits, the AI companies are looking for Government hand outs and Taxpayer Bailouts.

These are companies built not on great products and great business models. These are companies built on Privatization of Profits and Socialization of Losses. Regulatory Capture. Government Backstops. Taxpayer Bailouts and Taxpayer Bailins.

Marvels not of Engineering, but of Financial Engineering.

Now we know why we were suddenly seeing so many articles claiming ‘Bubble are a holy cleansing fire’ and ‘Bubbles have benefits’ and ‘Bubbles lay the groundwork for the Next Generation of Great Companies’.

Sadly, this is the day that AI’s reputation got destroyed. The industry is looking for Bailouts and Taxpayer money even before it has started kindergarten. Amazing. Simply Amazing.
Is the AI Wildfire coming? Will it be incredibly healthy?

November 7th, 2025
Reference: The AI Wildfire Is Coming. It’s Going to be Very Painful and Incredibly Healthy.

URL Link: https://ceodinner.substack.com/p/the-ai-wildfire-is-coming-its-going

This is a beautifully written article. Beautifully written does not mean accurate.

We are at the stage of the AI Bubble where everyone and their mother is admitting it is a Bubble. This creates a very problematic situation for the ‘True Believers’.

Let’s say you’ve spent the last 4 years pumping up an AI Bubble, and it’s grown way bigger than you had anticipated. You, finally, realize things are completely out of hand.

How do you now distance yourself from this massive AI Bubble? How do you minimize the collateral damage to your reputation when the AI Bubble collapses?

Well, one way is to have people write beautiful articles about ‘The Benefits of Bubbles’ or ‘The Silver Lining to an AI Bubble Collapse’. You can even write them yourselves if you are running out of Spin Doctors.

This article (The AI Wildfire is Coming. It’s Going to be very painful and incredibly Healthy) is a great example of Spin

First, you acknowledge there is an AI Bubble and that it is going to burst.

Second, you immediately launch a claim that it is a very good thing that we had an AI Bubble and that the Bubble bursting is somehow a great thing and ‘incredibly healthy’.

Let’s look at the article in Depth. We will see some beautiful writing and some very interesting ‘reframing’ to make the AI Bubble seem a beautiful thing.

The Fire Season

The article claims that the AI Bubble is not a ‘bubble’ but a cleansing wildfire. This is beautiful imagery.

Instead of admitting that VCs and Tech CEOs created an AI Bubble and wrangled a lot of money out of a lot of people.

Just claim that it is a holy cleansing fire and that it will create the conditions for ‘the next generation of forest to thrive’.

Amusing that VCs and Tech Founders assume the rest of the world are dumb enough to believe that creating an AI Bubble and generating undeserved fortunes for the VCs and Tech CEOs is somehow a ‘cleansing fire’.

There has been a transfer of money from naive people to the people pushing the AI Bubble. Nothing ‘cleansing’ about that other than the cleansing of wallets of sheep.

Comparisons to 1999 and 2008

The article compares 2025 AI Bubble to the Crashes of 1999 and 2008

Firstly, 1999 burned through not just dot com exuberance, it also burned through a lot of naive people’s life savings.

The survivors (Google, Amazon, eBay, Paypal) are hardly the standard for what a good, productive company should be. Unless you measure a company purely by profits and don’t factor in the effect on people and society.

Secondly, claiming 2008 was somehow related to social and mobile companies is absurd. 2008 was all about Wall Street’s bad bets. Bad Bets which have still not been closed out. That’s why we still have Tesla in a permanent short squeeze and many of the 2008 Swaps still being rolled and kicked down the road.

The survivors of 2008 (Facebook, Uber, AirBnbn, offspring of YCombinator) are an even worse example of what companies should be. Especially in terms of affect on society.

What does it say when most countries around the world are banning social media for children and teenagers under 15. The article seems detached from the reality that every day people who are sick and tired of companies like Facebook/Meta.

Wrongly claiming the Wall Street Crisis of 2008 was somehow a technology related cleansing wildfire is hilarious.

Equally amusing is claiming that this ‘cleansing wildfire’ of 2028 was somehow ‘worth it’ because it gave us abominations such as Facebook/Meta and Uber.

The Overgrown Forest

This is actually a well written section that also manages to be accurate. Agree with all of this. Except the last claim that in this kind of forest a fire is a correction.

In this kind of forest, a fire will burn through all the money invested.

It would also lead to a 20% to 50% US stock market crash. That would wipe out many non AI companies. That would wipe out 50% to 100% of many investors’ portfolios.

That is not a correction. That would be the biggest crash since 1929 and lead to an absolutely terrible Depression. One that might match or even exceed The Great Depression.

The Flammable Brush

The author refers to startups that will not survive the crash of an AI Bubble as ‘flammable brush’.

When the flammable brush burns it does not release resources back into the soil for harder species to absorb, as the article claims. The capital is all gone.

Furthermore, there will be very few companies that survive. The vast majority of ‘AI engineers’ will not have new jobs. At most 15% or 20% of AI talent from failed companies will find new jobs. The rest will have to find jobs outside of AI.

The Fire Retardant Giants

At this point, they are just trying to push the Forest Fire analogy too far.

Reality is
1. Because their stock price has been pushed so far
2. Because they have made such large investments into AI infrastructure
3. Because they are propping up the US stock market
None of the large tech companies (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Google, Amazon) can afford the AI Bubble bursting
1. Firstly, stock price falls will greatly affect these companies’ reputation with investors
2. Secondly, their large investments in AI infrastructure will be undone
  - Let’s not forget the opportunity cost of investing hundreds of billions of dollars into AI infrastructure when no ‘Killer App’ for AI exists (yet)
  - We also don’t know whether -> When/If there is finally a ‘Killer App’ for AI, it will use the same generations of AI Chips that these companies are currently buying
  - The Killer App of AI just needs to be a few years in the future and all the current AI chips will be too ancient to work with it
3. Thirdly, if these large tech companies crash, the US stock market will see a massive crash
  - That in turn will greatly affect US consumers and US companies.
  - It will burn companies and consumers around the whole world
  - The customer base for the large US tech companies will be severely impacted as they will have far less disposable income
There is no such thing as ‘Fire Retardant Giants’ when Open AI with $20 billion a year in revenue has promised $1.4 trillion over the next 8 years.

These large tech companies have made a very big bet that OpenAI and Anthropic and other AI startups will succeed to an absurd extent.

They have made an even bigger bet that AI will become the center of the Universe.

The Large Tech Companies might not die out. However, they will lose 5 to 10 years worth of opportunity cost in terms of lost resources and lost time if AI does not become The Next Big Technological Revolution.

The Resprouters

Will some AI companies grow back after dying?

Yes, it is conceivable. The ones that have raised billions and are not burning through these billions might.

The failure is not wasted. Only for the survivors.

The Fire Followers

This might be the only fully accurate part of this beautifully written Spin masterpiece.

Once the AI Bubble bursts, we would have very interesting conditions
1. The large tech companies would have to deal with lost opportunity cost, lost money, lost time
  - It would take them time to re-focus on real markets
  - In addition to the 5 to 10 years lost by throwing everything at AI
  - They might lose another 2 to 5 years chasing the actual big new areas
    
    With the added cost that they might not be able to catch up, ever
2. The AI big guns would be either wiped out, or in severe withdrawal
3. Most of the AI startups would be wiped out
  - A few would be in survival mode
  - The rest would be pivoting to non AI uses
4. Almost everyone who is fully focused on AI would need years or decades to build another business, whether in AI or not
That means that founders who start after the crash, and companies that never focused on AI and were instead focused on non Bubble industries, would have massive advantages over the current AI acolytes and the current AI faithful.

Claiming 2008 was about Silicon Valley is just absurd

This is a beautifully written article.

Not sure why we need spin doctors to defend the AI companies and the large tech companies who went all-in on AI to boost their market caps and their personal fortunes

Still, the article is almost a Spin masterpiece.

One of the main things that holds it back is -> Taking The Great Financial Crisis and somehow claiming it had to do with Silicon Valley. That is just absurd. That was a Wall Street crisis and did not have any strong connections to the 1999 Dot Com crash and does not have any strong connections to the the current AI Bubble.
Meta/Facebook sued in California Federal court by Owner of Entrepreneur Magazine

November 7th, 2025

You mean to tell me all the content on the Internet is not just available for free for AI Companies?

Apparently not.

Entreprenuer Magazine is suing Facebook/Meta for copying Entrepeneur Magazine’s strategy books, professional development guides, etc. to train Meta’s artificial intelligence systems.

It is rather interesting that you can do all this illegal stuff against Governments (Uber, AirBnB) and have relatively low costs. Governments move so slowly and can be bribed so easily.

Start doing it to other businesses, and those businesses are generally in no mood to give you a free ride.

It’s going to be super interesting to see what happens with all these cases. Google got so big so fast, and newspapers were so slow moving, that nothing much could happen there.

With AI companies, it is a bit different. Content creators and Businesses have a chance to do something of significance.

Reference (Reuters) -> https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/entrepreneur-magazine-publisher-sues-meta-over-ai-training-2025-11-06/

Retail Touch Points also has a good article on this -> https://www.retailtouchpoints.com/features/executive-viewpoints/training-without-consent-is-risky-business-what-business-owners-need-to-know-about-the-proposed-ai-accountability-and-data-protection-act

Actually, a beautiful article. An absolute must read with real depth. Linking again -> Retail Touch Points Articles on AI Copyright Litigation.
OpenAI’s Sam Altman confirms that OpenAI Annual Revenue will be $20 Billion a year by End 2025

November 6th, 2025

That’s it. That’s the post

Reference 1 -> https://x.com/sama/status/1986514377470845007

Reference 2 -> https://the-decoder.com/openai-ceo-sam-altman-expects-to-hit-20-billion-in-annual-revenue-by-year-end/
OpenAI Chairman’s Customer Experience AI startup Sierra valued at $10 Billion + Crosses $100 Million in Annualized Recurring Revenue

November 5th, 2025
Richard Nieva at Forbes (Paywall) profiles Sierra, an AI powered customer experience startup from Bret Tayler (OpenAI Chairman) and Clay Bavor -> Inside OpenAI Chairman’s $10 Billion AI Customer Service Startup Sierra

Richard Nieva on Twitter -> Richard Nieva on X: “New: I profiled Sierra, the $10B AI customer service startup from Bret Taylor and Clay Bavor, which wants to make AI agents the primary way businesses interact with customers. For the piece, I talked to their old bosses, Mark Zuckerberg and Sundar Pichai https://t.co/tDZUFyXQz6” / X

That is actually really interesting -> Talking to Zuckerberg and Pichai to get better insight on the co-founders of Sierra.

Details on Sierra
1. Sierra’s Who We Are Page -> About Sierra | Sierra
2. Sierra’s customers include – Clear, Casper, Minted, ADP, Wilson, Sonos, Ramp, Tubi, CDW, Sirius XM, AOL, Weight Watchers, and Thrive Market
Customer Experience vs Customer Service

Find it really interesting that Sierra are pushing ‘Customer Experiences’ as what they help build i.e.

Sierra helps businesses build better, more human customer experiences with AI.

What they are building are Customer Service Agents that mirror the nuances of human behavior and deliver near human customer service.

Yeah, we could certainly use AI customer service much better than what current exists. At the moment AI customer service means endless frustration and then eventually figuring out how to get a real human.
OpenAI hits 1 million business customers + OpenAI claims to be the fastest growing business platform in history

November 5th, 2025
Reference: 1 million business customers: the fastest-growing business platform in history | OpenAI

Data Points from OpenAI’s post on reaching 1 million business customers
1. 1 million business customers
  - Includes all businesses that actively pay OpenAI for business use through ChatGPT for Work, or through direct consumption of OpenAI’s models through OpenAI’s developer platform
2. Consumer Clients (not business customers) has reached 800 million weekly users
3. New Tools and Capabilities and Integrations for Businesses
  - Company Knowledge – ChatGPT can reason across Slack, SharePoint, GitHub, etc
  - Adoption for Codex – usage up 10X since August
4. Recent Wharton Study claims 75% of enterprises deploying AI are reporting a positive ROI, with only 5% reporting negative ROI
5. Apps
  - Canva, Figma, Zillow building Apps directly in ChatGPT
  - Shopify, Etsy, Walmart building new shopping experiences through the Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP) in ChatGPT
Thoughts on OpenAI’s data points and claims
1. 1 million business customers is impressive
2. The claim of fastest growing business platform in history is rather dubious. OpenAI has been around since 2015 and ChatGPT has been around for years. Claiming business platform ‘growth’ since it was launched ‘for businesses’ is an inaccurate claim
3. Looking forward to seeing Apps built specifically for business customers
This is certainly an impressive update by OpenAI.
Where are the AI powered Dating Startups?

November 5th, 2025

In all the AI Funding news, I’ve not seen any AI Dating companies getting mentioned.

Dating is a cluster-@#$$ right now. No one is happy. It’s not working for the vast majority of people.

The youngest generation is simply giving up and quitting on dating entirely. Even Millenials are crying about the lack of clubs and bars because online dating is beyond miserable.

There should be a ton of Dating startups getting funded.

Match.com is ripe for the picking. They are so bad at connecting people that people would rather go out to bars and spend $20 a drink. Next time you are out at a bar and see how bad the bar scene is, consider this –

Match.com’s 500 different dating apps are so inefficient and corrupted that people would rather go out to bars.

Is there any other technology area that is so inefficient and disappointing?

Heck, Match.com is so bad that Facebook dating is making a comeback.

There really should be an army of Dating startups using AI and Agentic Matchmaking to take on the bloated monopoly of Match.com’s 500 milquetoast dating apps.
Amazon vs Perplexity on Agentic Commerce – Amazon sends Cease & Desist to Perplexity regarding Comet Agentic Commerce Purchases

November 4th, 2025
In a somewhat predictable yet perplexing move, Amazon has sent Perplexity a cease and desist letter. Amazon is demanding (akin to a high maintenance Ex who thinks they still own your pretty little ass) that Perplexity stop its Comet Browser’s Shopping AI Agent from making purchases on behalf of users

Translation – Hey Perplexity. Your Shopping AI Agent which is supposed to make purchases on behalf of users and make their life easier? Well, yeah, it would be great if it stopped doing that.

Why is Amazon scared? Because if AI Agentic eCommerce takes off, then there is no reason for Amazon.com to exist. The back end could be ANY retailer or even just a conglomeration of warehouses and manufacturers.

Bloomberg -> Amazon Demands Perplexity Stop AI Tool From Making Purchases – Bloomberg

What is the Issue? Why is Amazon scared of Big Bad Perplexity and Its Tiny Little Comet Browser?
1. Perplexity has an AI powered browser, Comet
2. Comet is based on Chromium
3. Comet lets users make automatic purchases via an AI eCommerce Agent
Amazon does not want eCommerce to switch from users visiting Amazon.com and deciding what to buy, to
- Shopping AI Agents making the purchase on behalf of customers and the customers never having to visit Amazon.com
Basically, Shopping AI Agents turn Amazon.com into a dumb terminal or an invisible warehouse.

That means -> Amazon.com can be replaced by ANY online retailer.

If Shopping AI Agents become the Shopfront/Storefront/Main User Experience that most/all users see and interact with -> Then there is no longer a need for Amazon.com. There is no user connection with Amazon.com.

Amazon becomes a fungible warehouse. It can just be replaced by a collection of Chinese manufacturers or a group of US warehouses.

Is Amazon in the Right?

No. Not at all. If the user has given Perplexity permission, then Perplexity is 100% in the right to make purchases on behalf of the user.

Exactly how you let your DoorDash or Instacart shopper purchase groceries on your behalf, Perplexity’s Agentic AI Shopper should be able to make purchases on your behalf.

There is absolutely no legal ground for Amazon to stand on. As it is a matter of survival, Amazon will still try to make a legal case.

Why exactly is Amazon sending Perplexity a Cease and Desist letter?

Because it is a Life and Death issue for Amazon.
1. At some level, Amazon makes money due to the presence of inefficiencies and bottlenecks in eCommerce
  - You could go as far as saying Amazon.com exists because of Arbitrage and the Need for Convenience
  - Users are too lazy so Amazon uses a collection of methods (free shipping, fast shipping, good selection, good customer service, supposed low prices) to make Amazon.com the ‘path of least resistance’ for eCommerece
  - Amazon’s survival depends on both
    
    Amazon being the ‘easiest’ option. The Path of Least Resistance
    
    Amazon controlling what the user sees
    
    This is absolutely critical. In fact, some people would argue that Amazon’s entire ‘Advertising’ business is Amazon showing users the wrong things so the ‘Personalized Ads’ seem a better choice
  - Agentic AI and AI Shopping Agents are easier and more convenient than searching through the reeds at Amazon. That means Amazon.com is no longer the Path of Least Resistance
    
    Why spend 15 minutes wading through Ads on Amazon and Fake Reviewed Chinese trash, when you can just have Perplexity’s Shopping AI Agent find you what you need
    
    Why go to Amazon.com at all, if the Perplexity Shopping AI Agent buys what you should be buying
  - Amazon.com as it exists, is no longer required
    
    We have already seen Shine and Temu and TikTop Shop and Shopify begin to weaken Amazon’s hold on eCommerce
    
    Amazon has resorted to heavy lobbying and using the US Government to fight against Temu and Shein
    
    Amazon is also using lobbying to try and ban TikTok. It (and other US corporations) succeeded. Then TikTok found its own ‘lobbying’ solution with the US Government
  - Shopping AI Agents are an even bigger existential threat, because users would leave the ENTIRE decision making process to the Shopping AI Agent
    
    It would not even be – Is Amazon better or is Temu Better or is Shein better or is Tik Top Shops better?
    
    Users would leave EVERYTHING to the Shopping AI Agent and the company which controls the Shopping AI Agent now controls Amazon’s bloated and advertising riddled ass
2. By creating a platform which is approximately 51% of ecommerce purchases in the US, Amazon gets a few benefits
  - Tremendous power
  - Economies of scale
  - Able to get advertising revenue by ‘selling’ shelf space
    
    It kills the user experience so that ‘Personalized Ads’ are better than organic search results
    
    Killing its own long term future to build this ‘Advertising Service’
  - Introducing its own products (such as Amazon basics)
  - Taking a cut of retailers’ and dropsellers’ sales
  - Cross Marketing
  - Growing Amazon’s customer base
  - Control of what customers see
3. If purchasing shifts from customers going to Amazon.com, to customers letting Agentic AI make purchases, all the power and control and money shifts
  - Firstly, customers will switch to using Shopping Agents as the Starting Point
    
    In theory, at some point of time in the future, these Shopping Agents could just switch out Amazon and replace it with another ecommerce retailer, or even their own estore
  - Secondly, it becomes almost impossible for Amazon to sell advertising space
    
    Amazon does not control what the user sees, when Shopping AI Agents are involved
    
    In many use case scenarios, the Shopping AI Agent is making the decision. So customers are seeing ‘nothing’
    
    Amazon cannot sell ‘Shelf Space’ as ‘Advertising’ as the new Shelf Space is controlled by the Shopping AI Agent and by the company which owns the Shopping AI Agent
    
    Efficiency of Shopping AI Agents, in theory, means there is far less ‘shelf space’ available.
    
    As Shopping AI Agents get better and better – there will be no ‘advertising space’ at all
We are living in truly interesting times

Anyone who makes a truly efficient Shopping AI Agent completely wipes out Amazon’s retail division and eBay and most other retailers

What is the risk to Amazon if some/all of eCommerce shifts to Agentic Commerce?

Amazon.com becomes a dumb terminal.

Amazon is no longer required, at all.

Will people trust Shopping AI Agents? Will people switch over to Agentic eCommerce?

People will do anything to save time and to avoid working and to save mental bandwidth.

Ask yourself this question – When is the last time you were delighted by your shopping experience at Amazon?

For many people it has been over a decade. For some people many years. There is almost no one anywhere saying – I loved my Amazon.com shopping experience.

People are EAGER and WILLING to hand over eCommerce shopping for most purchases to a Shopping AI Agent that will save them time and effort.

Most purchase decisions fall into
1. Necessities – Users derive very little pleasure from the shopping experience of buying necessities
2. Luxuries – Users probably greatly enjoy these shopping experiences and will continue to indulge in these manually. Perhaps in the real world. Perhaps online
3. One-off Purchases that are important but not pleasurable – Users, again, derive very little pleasure from these shopping experiences
The 1st and 3rd categories of purchases are categories of purchases where users will very gladly hand off The Entire Shopping Experience to a Shopping AI Agent

For Amazon that means – Bye Bye Love. Bye Bye Happiness. Hello Loneliness. I think I’m going to die.

Here is why the rise of Shopping AI Agents completely screws Amazon and will lead to Amazon being left behind in eCommerce

Firstly, most users will just let the Shopping AI Agent buy from ANYWHERE. This will happen sooner rather than later. People greatly underestimate how weak Amazon’s hold on customers has become over the last decade.

The self-inflicted wound of killing the user experience of shopping at Amazon – ostensibly, to grow an ‘Advertising’ business – has made most people deeply unhappy. That is why Temu and Shein and Tik Tok Shop are taking so much market share.

With better Shopping AI Agents – Amazon is no longer involved and the purchase happens from a retailer in China or a distributer in China or a warehouse in America. No revenue for Amazon.

Secondly, even when the Shopping AI Agent chooses Amazon.com, or if the user specifies Amazon.com as the retailer to purchase from -> There is no ‘Advertising Space’ Amazon can leverage. The user is not seeing anything. So Amazon cannot show the user Ads. Amazon cannot route users to the products it makes the higher margins on. Amazon cannot show ‘Personalized Ads’ instead of the best products.

It is now the Shopping AI Agent that controls EVERYTHING

Why is Everyone missing the Aspects of Control and Power and Revenue? Why is Everyone missing that Shopping AI Agents will turn Amazon into a dumb terminal and then replace it with a non Amazon owned Dumb Terminal?

Because the money from Amazon Web Services has allowed Amazon to paper over the cracks of just how terrible a shopping experience Amazon.com has become.

Shopping at Amazon is now navigating through ‘sponsored ads’ and all types of terrible drop shipped products. Hoping you will run into an actual high quality product. Reviews are compromised. Search Rankings on Amazon.com are compromised (amusingly by Amazon itself, to grow its ‘Advertising’ business).

Will Agentic AI Commerce actually take off?

Yes. 100%

As opposed to most of AI/Machine Learning, which is overhyped, Agentic ECommerence is underhyped.

Most people are dying for an easier and more efficient way to shop.

The large platforms have compromised their platforms in the pursuit of profit.

The number and percentage of terrible search results on Google is shocking. Google must pollute its organic search results so that people prefer to click on the Ads.

The number and percentage of abysmally bad shopping search results on Amazon is astounding. Amazon must pollute its search organic results so that people prefer the ‘Personalized Ads’ and inferior products with higher profit margins.

It is not unusual for users to waste 50% to 90% of their ‘search’ time.

Google and Amazon and other platforms make most of their money from advertising and it is in their best interest to make Organic Search Results terrible, so that users are forced to turn to the Sponsored Ads

Anything which either
1. Makes the shopping process more efficient
Or
1. Bypasses Amazon.com and Google.com and takes users straight to the best results and the best products
Is poison for both Google and Amazon’s advertising business and for their sites/platforms themselves.

This is one of the most interesting areas in AI and there is an incredible amount of money at stake. This is one of the few areas where AI companies do not have to ‘create’ a market, or hope one magically materializes.

By cannibalizing and prostituting their Platforms, Google and Amazon have laid out a red carpet for Efficient, Fast, Easy to Use Shopping AI Agents to take over eCommerce and Shopping and completely bypass Amazon and Google.

Once we have very good Shopping AI Agents, there is no need for a shopping platform like Amazon.com. Nor do we have a need for a search engine like Google.

If you had a shopping agent, Claire, and she made good smart decisions for you, you would NEVER need to use Amazon.com. Even 15 minutes saved per shopping search is a lot of money saved. A lot of frustration avoided.

The ‘Killer App’ of AI might be right in front of our noses.
Long Term Impact of Nvidia’s Chinese Market Share going to Zero

October 25th, 2025
As the AI wars got heated, the US was caught in a bind. China was progressing very fast in AI. The US was forced to cut off Nvidia AI Chip supplies to China.

This was a very risky move and it is worth considering whether it paid off, or whether it backfired?

Perhaps both.

The hope was that the Nvidia AI Chip ban would severely hamper China’s AI efforts. Surely, if they didn’t have Nvidia Chips (at one time, quite literally the only game in town), China’s AI efforts would stall.

Well, what exactly has happened as a result of the Nvidia AI Chip ban?
1. Nvidia’s market share in China has gone to zero
2. Chinese startups are forced to innovate, including in ways no one had foreseen
3. China has managed to survive in the AI race
  - In fact, you could argue that the fact that China is alive and kicking in AI means the Nvidia AI Chips ban was necessary
  - Perhaps China would have overtaken the US without the Nvidia AI Chips ban
4. Chinese AI chip manufacturers are evolving rapidly
5. Illegal sales to China via countries such as Singapore and territories such as Hong Kong are robust
  - Albeit hard to measure accurately
6. It has shown that taking away Nvidia AI chips from a country does not kill that country’s AI development and AI market evolution
  - This is quite shocking and very scary
  - It also makes one question why Nvidia’s valuation is so sky high
7. The US banning Nvidia AI Chip exports to China has shown that the US is not a dependable country
  - At some level most countries knew this
  - However, the assumption was that the US would not go against capitalism and the free market
  - The Nvidia AI Chips ban shows that there are some areas the US considers so important that it is willing to forsake capitalism
It is really quite fascinating to wonder about the long term implications of forcing China to get by without the latest generation (s) of Nvidia AI Chips

Long Term Implications of Nvidia AI Chips ban + China’s response to it
1. The US might have slowed down China overall in AI and prevented it from surpassing the US
  - At the same time, the US helped accelerate two key aspects of China’s AI evolution
    
    Firstly, Chinese startups are now doing the most innovative things in AI. We see this with Deepseek and Manus
    
    Secondly, China’s AI hardware efforts have been massively boosted. Necessity is indeed the mother of invention and innovation
  - Basically, the US bought itself 2 to 4 years, and bought China 10 years of development and innovation
    
    Without any wars against China, the US will find it hard to compete with China in AI by approximately 2035
2. Countries and Unions like European Union, Saudi Arabia, India, Russia, etc have now become acutely aware that the US will use any means necessary to monopolize the AI revolution (whether it is merely a big technology revolution, or a truly world changing revolution that transforms everything)
  - All countries are becoming more independent
  - This is especially true of the European Union and the Middle Eastern countries
    
    They have enough resources and are well developed enough to actually begin to wean themselves off of the American AI Chips supply
3. The US is now left with no option other than War to monopolize AI developments
  - Fundamentally, if you hold back on the latest Nvidia AI chips and hope it will give you a 5 year lead
  - In reality you find out it gave you only a 1 or 2 year lead
  - Then your only path to maintain status as Sole World Super Power is to start wars
    
    If China (somewhat likely), or European Union (somewhat unlikely) take the lead in AI
    
    They would have the means to become the new sole super power
    
    Or joint most powerful super power alongside the US
    
    This is an untenable situation for the US which is already facing the struggles of the American Empire in slow decline i.e.
    
    The onset of Civil War in the US
    
    The start of countries disrespecting Team America World Police
    
    The world beginning to fall apart, as the World Police is too busy with internal wars
  - The US absolutely must monopolize AI to remain the Sole Superpower in the World
    
    Now, with the failure of the Nvidia AI Chip ban, its only option is out right war
    
    Or such a huge AI leap that other countries are unable to keep up
    
    By the way, we do not mean financial engineering and circular deals and infinite funding
    
    We mean the US needs an actual technological AI advancement
    
    Without such a massive, magical, revolutionary technological leap, the US must use its massive Armed Forces to maintain its status as Hegemon
    
    Perhaps first with a country such as Venezuela which is easy (while also having massively valuable oil reservces)
    
    Then with a weakened Russia. Perhaps that is the reason Ukraine is given just enough resources to keep fighting a never ending war
    
    Then, using conquered Russia as a springboard, with China itself
  - If all of this seems crazy, think of all the changes we have seen in the US. They are far crazier than America going to war outside its borders
We are truly living in interesting times

The US is pushing AI as the biggest technological revolution of all time, hoping some magic ‘Killer AI App’ happens and cements the US as the only superpower in the world.

If that does not happen within the next 1 to 3 years, then the US must go to war

No amount of financial engineering and pretending AI is the new Steam Engine or the New Internet will cement the US as Sole Superpower in the World for the next 100 years

Wars might.

China and the EU and the Middle East are all investing heavily in AI and if AI becomes a 100 year race, then the American Empire in Slow Decline is no longer guaranteed to win this 100 year AI race.

Not only are we living in very interesting times, we are also living in very scary times

The US is pulling off the greatest illusion of all time – Pretending there is some super amazing new AI technology that makes it the dominant and only super power in the world for the next 100 to 500 years.

At some point, it needs to Deliver, or go to war

And all of us are in danger of becoming collateral damage.
Will ChatGPT App Store be a Gamechanger?

October 24th, 2025

In its current form – No

As it stands right now, ChatGPT’s new App Store is just a simple, unremarkable extension of ChatGPT

If ChatGPT actually OPENS up ChatGPT to Innovative and Out of the Box Apps?

Then, yes.

The entire point of an open platform is that you get Apps and Features that the creators of the Platform could not forsee or do themselves

You are bringing in Free R&D and Innovation and Experiments

To do that effectively, you must let go of Control

*****

Is there any way a controlled, slow opening of ChatGPT AppStore could work?

No, not really.

Whichever AI company builds a truly open (or almost truly open) App Store will get all the actual Innovation

Developers have little interest in doing boring R&D

To get developers interested in risking time and money and effort into an App Store, you must EXCITE them with wild possibilities