This is a very interesting post. It is absolutely fascinating how the Middle East countries are confused, or perhaps super brilliant, in deciding whether to support America or China in the AI Wars.
To Be America’s Ally, or to be China’s Ally – That is the Question
Saudi Arabia’s solution for the moment seems to be – Why not both?
It’s a smart bet, as it is not clear at all whether America or China (or someone else, perhaps even a large tech company) will become the Winner in the AI Wars
We predict that the Saudis will start making bigger bets and start investing in specific technology companies and specific AI startups while still appeasing both America and China.
We currently have people in 3 camps, as to the Future of AI
The first category are people who think AI will take over Everything. The way the Internet took over (and is still taking over) everything
This includes the large technology companies who are spending roughly $100 billion a quarter in AI capital expenditure
This includes people in certain professions such as doctors, lawyers, Data Analysts, etc who are seeing their work life transformed by AI
This includes college and school students who are basically ‘AI’ing all their homework assignments and hoping the AI companies don’t release an AI plagiarism checker
The second category are people who think AI is overhyped
This includes people burned by things like chatbots and NFTs and VR sets and self driving cars (not literally, we don’t mean literally, don’t mean to hurt anyone’s feelings)
This includes people who, accurately, don’t YET see a ‘killer use’ of AI for every day people
This includes people who look at AI as just a means of pumping up large tech companies (especially Nvidia) and propping up the US stock market
The third category are people who have absolutely no clue what to think, or don’t even know what is going on with AI
This is the most interesting group because whether or not they embrace AI will determine whether AI does indeed become the next world changer
What does DealAI think about The Future of AI?
There are two very conflicting realities
The first reality is that the amount of R&D investment into AI by countries (USA, China, Middle East, etc) and companies (Big Tech, Chinese Big Tech) suggests that AI is here to stay and will indeed transform everything. You have to follow the money and the amount of investment into AI, by people with the most data and knowledge, suggests AI really is the next big game changer
The second reality is that all the countries and companies investing big into AI really NEED and WANT AI to become the next big thing
For the countries (especially US and China) it would solve all their economic bubble issues. If AI really transformed things then all their economic sins would be hidden and perhaps even fixed
For the large tech companies (especially Google and Facebook and Apple and Amazon (perhaps Amazon most of all)) AI would provide the next big growth area and a justification for their valuations
So, how do we differentiate between these two realities?
There is no easy answer
The Decline and Fall of the American Empire Versus AI as the Solution to Resurrect the American Empire
Ray Dalio has an absolutely fascinating video on the Decline and Fall of Empires ->
There can be little doubt to anyone paying close attention that the American Empire is indeed in slow decline. Perhaps the biggest indicator is that Americans are being turned into wage slaves, debt slaves, and rent slaves. Hardly the type of life befitting the citizens of an Empire.
AI is exceedingly crucial for America as if AI really is the once in a lifetime transformational technology that it promises to be, America can use AI to fully revive its Empire and extend the empire by 100 to 200 years.
The importance of this cannot be understated. The only path to America extending its empire, without a series of bloody world wars, is for AI (or another super transformational technology such as Nuclear Fusion) to happen and America to have control of this new technology
So, what is the Future of AI?
We don’t know the answer. What we do know is that
If AI really is as transformational as people are hoping, then whichever country captures AI will become the next Sole SuperPower and control the world for 100 to 200 years
This is not just a technology. This is the determinant of the Next Global Empire.
Perhaps it will be America extending their current Empire for another 100 to 200 years via AI.
Perhaps it will take a century to truly play out, and in that case, any of USA, China, India, the Middle East, or a wild card country or even a large Technology Company could become the next Massive Sole Super Power
Most countries already realize this and are already protecting their data and their citizens (or beginning to). The stage is set for the AI Wars, and the Winner will/could/should control the entire world for the next 100 to 200 years.
Please Note: We do not support (or attack) Elon Musk. This post is based on Musk being in the unique position of needing to retain Tesla AI engineers whilst OpenAI tries to steal them. He is well placed to make his claim of ‘Talent War for AI is the Craziest Talent War he has ever seen’.
Elon Musk says that Tesla has over 200 excellent engineers in the Tesla AI/Autonomy Team.
Bloomberg and others are reporting that OpenAI is targeting these Engineers with MASSIVE compensation packages. Tesla has increased compensation (contingent on progress milestones).
DealAI’s Thoughts
Tesla is struggling. Tesla’s car deliveries missed analyst estimates by a considerable margin (last quarter). BYD is really ramping up and there is only so long Western Media can pretend BYD does not exist.
To make things worse, Elon Musk has brought his personal politics and turned Tesla into an interesting conundrum for most environment-loving people. They want to buy a Tesla but don’t support Elon Musk’s political beliefs or his boorish behavior.
OpenAI, on the other hand, is selling their AI vision/dream very well. Altman is talking about raising Trillions, building chip factories, and all kinds of ‘I’m the new Elon Musk who can sell anyone to anything’ stuff.
Musk attacked OpenAI and OpenAI is fighting back
It’s not a surprise at all, given
Musk attacking OpenAI’s move to becoming a Profit Centric company
Musk starting xAI
That OpenAI think it’s imperative to steal as many Tesla AI engineers and scientists as it can.
This is going to be very interesting to watch. OpenAI can offer crazy salaries and massive stock upside potential. Tesla cannot.
Musk’s new AI company, xAI, might. However, Musk has been reluctant to IPO any of his non-Tesla companies. He probably wants to avoid getting cellarboxed by Wall Street.
CellarBoxed – Short and Distort to Drive a company’s price into the cellar, thereby making it impossible for the company to raise capital.
OpenAI has the upper hand, for the forseeable future
OpenAI basically will be able to steal a lot of Tesla talent. Wonder how many Tesla AI engineers disagree with Elon Musk’s personal politics and are just waiting for the right offer.
Techmeme is highlighting this article from TechCrunch. Covariant seems an interesting company.
It just shared details about RFM-1, a Large Language Model (LLM) which allows Robots to ask for instructions for tasks they cannot complete on their own.
RFM-1 features 8 billion parameters
Their LLM can generate videos of robots performing tasks. These videos can somehow enable robots to do the actions/plan the actions?
Not very clear how everything works
Covariant says their Model is built using Robots in actual production environments and is therefore better than Robot LLMs built using in-lab robots
Building Robots with the Ability to see, think and act
Building an AI Platform that will allow Robots to think like humans (there goes your workplace productivity)
Already chosen as AI Robotics Platform of choice by ABB, KNAPP, Bastian (3 large warehouse integrators)
Backed by Temasek (Singapore Sovereign Wealth Fund), Index Ventures, Amplify, Northgate, AIX Ventures, Radical Ventures, and CPP Investments
Locations include Emeryville, California, USA and Shenzhen, China
Lots of Open Positions including Head of Robotics Software (a bit of a worrying sign if you’re building an AI Platform for Robots but don’t have a Head of Robotics Software)
Covariant Ratings
My quick ratings
Product Market Fit – 9/10. Seems immense
Funding – 10/10. Lots of Funding and strong backers
Interestingness – 10/10. Might be biased as Robots are cool and there doesn’t seem to be as much work in the area of AI for Robots as there should be
Team – Incomplete. They certainly don’t make it easy to find out more about their team. Will update if I can get more details
Competition & Competitive Advantages – Incomplete. Sorry, don’t know enough about their competitors yet, to rate them on this
These are the 10 areas we will be covering on DealAI.com –
Key Breakthroughs in AI Research
Big Mergers & Acquisitions in AI. Mostly technology related
Big Deals in AI. This includes both research related deals and technology related deals
Reviews and Insights on interesting new AI companies
Updates on where AI is being used
Guides and Articles on better understanding AI and the implications of AI
Navel Gazing Articles on what might happen if AI actually happens, and furthermore, if AI intelligence levels exceed human intelligence
AI Ethics and Principles discussions
Geopolitical analysis on thoughts of if/when/how AI could upset the Power Balance and/or make the strong even stronger
Funding updates when promising startups (or annoying ones) get funding
Key Political developments in AI, especially policy. For what its worth we think 99% of current initiatives to promote ‘openness’ and ‘security’ are just regulatory capture. The AI companies that are ahead of everyone else are trying to bribe politicians into creating a regulatory moat for themselves
Interesting analysis and thoughts on how different companies, different countries, and different groups of people are approaching AI
We might adjust the Direction of the App from time to time.
It would be quite funny for an AI blog focused on a Human perspective of AI to use AI generated content. Perhaps even unethical.
So we are making a commitment that DealAI.com will NEVER have any AI generated written content.
What about AI generated images and videos? We might share some as Examples. In general we will avoid AI generated images and videos. In some cases we might unknowingly use or share images and videos generated by AI.
Deal AI - Deals, Funding, Acquisitions & Mergers in AI 